How to Bet on the World Cup Golden Boot

Get the inside scoop on who is most likely to be the top goalscorer in World Cup 2022 – and find out where you can get killer odds on it.

The World Cup is underway, but who is going to emerge as the top goal scorer and capture the coveted Golden Boot? I’ve written a free guide which will explain all of this, as well as how you can place bets on the market to try and make a profit.

Many people bet on the top goalscorer before the World Cup begins, but you can place bets on it deep into the knockout stages. In fact, you can often get better odds by delaying your bet – as I’ll explain in my guide to the top goal scorer in the World Cup 2022.

How it works?

Whichever player scores the most goals in the World Cup 2022 will win the Golden Boot, and anybody who bets on them to be the top scorer will walk away with a tidy profit.

Only goals scored in the group stages and knockout stages count – any previous qualification games are irrelevant. And if two or more players each score the same number of goals, the award is split between them.

To place a bet on the World Cup top goal scorer, log into your betting site and click on the World Cup section. Next, look for ‘Outrights’. From here you should see the betting for either ‘Top Goal Scorer’ or ‘Golden Boot’, which are the same thing. Enter your stake, hit confirm, and your bet will be locked in.

There are some obvious ways to pick the top goal scorer at the World Cup 2022. You can look at which players are in form, which team is the favourite, and so on. But there are also some World Cup goalscorer betting strategies which you might not have considered. I’ll explain my findings below.

Here are six things to consider when betting on the World Cup top goalscorer:

1. Odds. Begin with the most straightforward angle by checking the odds. The shorter the odds, the more likely the player is to be the top goalscorer at World Cup 2022. Players like Kylian Mbappe and former winner Harry Kane will have the shortest odds, to begin with.
2. Form. Take a look at players’ form heading into the tournament. Who had a purple patch right before it began?
3. Fixtures. Carefully study not only the group stage games but also the potential paths a team may take to the final. The more easy games they have, the more chances for one of their players to rack up goals.
4. Dates. As well as fixtures, look at the dates. Early games will have an impact. For example, England v Iran is the second fixture, chronologically. Harry Kane’s odds could be slashed if he scores a lot in that seemingly simple fixture before his competitors have even had a chance to play. This can also boost the odds of other players – so delaying your bet could be a smart move.
5. Experience. Players who have delivered on the big stage before should have a higher chance of doing it again. Once again, Harry Kane’s name should be included – he won the award in 2018 with six goals, despite England losing in the semi-finals.
6. Teams. A brilliant player will struggle to become the top goal scorer if he doesn’t have the team support required. For example, neither Cristiano Ronaldo nor Lionel Messi has yet become a top goal scorer at a World Cup.

Stats

• Harry Kane is the most recent player to become the top goalscorer at a World Cup, scoring six goals in 2018
• The last top goalscorer at a World Cup to reach double digits was Gerd Muller for Germany in 1970
• This year’s pre-tournament favourite for the top goal scorer at World Cup 2022 was Kylian Mbappe
• Miroslav Klose of Germany is the current top scorer at World Cups, with a total of 16 goals scored

Rules

Goals scored in the group and knockout stages of the World Cup 2022 count towards top goal scorer records. This includes goals scored in ordinary time and, when applicable, extra time. Penalty shootouts do not count towards the total, but regular penalties do.

If two or more players finish as top goalscorers at World Cup 2022 with the same number of goals, the award is shared.

Here is my top 5 list of players who I think have the best chance of becoming top goal scorer at the World Cup 2022, along with my reasons:

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  Kylian Mbappe. One of the hottest young players in the game today, with electric pace and unstoppable strikes, playing for a team who are one of the favourites.
  
  
  
  
  
  
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  Harry Kane. The most recent winner of the top goalscorer award at the World Cup. Always seems to deliver for England.
  
  
  
  
  
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  Neymar. Playing in Ligue 1 should mean he’s fresher than players from the Premier League, and having the might of Brazil behind him will help his chances.
  
  
  
  
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  Lionel Messi. One of the best players in the game’s history cannot be overlooked as a potential Golden Boot winner, especially in what could be his last World Cup appearance.

World Cup’s All-Time Top Goal Scorers

If you want better odds, you’ll have to consider an underdog for the top goal scorer at World Cup 2022. And it could work.

As discussed, you only need a handful of goals to become top goalscorer at a World Cup. Six is often enough to do the trick. In 1962, six players split the honours with just four goals each!

In recent years it has often been an established star that became the top goal scorer at the World Cup, but it’s not necessarily the biggest name or the favourite. James Rodriguez was the top goal scorer at the 2014 World Cup despite being available at odds of around 33/1 before the tournament began.

The top goal scorer World Cup 2022 market is an exciting start, but there’s plenty more if you fancy some extra action. Here are my top tips for alternative World Cup betting markets:

• Outright Winner: Rather than trying to pinpoint one individual, you might want to just bet on the team you think will win the World Cup overall. Make sure you study the potential path to the final before you make your decision.
• Group Winner: I always find there are a few surprise group winners at every World Cup. I definitely expect that this year, especially given the hot conditions of Qatar.
• Player of the Tournament: Similar to the Golden Boot, there’s also a Golden Ball award for the best overall player.

While I was researching the top goal scorer for the 2022 World Cup, I came across some cool facts. Here are some of the most interesting things I discovered:

• The fastest ever World Cup goal was scored by Hakan Sukur of Turkey. He scored just 11 seconds into their fixture against South Korea.
• The most goals ever scored by one side during a single match at a World Cup is 10 when Hungary battered El Salvador 10-1.
• Miroslav Klose is the all-time top goalscorer at World Cup tournaments with 16 across four tourneys. He also won the Golden Boot in 2006.

I spent days researching and comparing odds for the top goal scorer at the World Cup 2022, and these are the sites I found with the very best odds available at the moment: